Population displacement during disasters predicted using mobile data

Using data supplied by a mobile operator, researchers at Karolinska Institutet have shown that population movements after the 2010 Haiti earthquake followed regular patterns. This information can be used to predict beforehand the movements of people after a disaster, and thus improves chances for aid to be delivered to the right places at the right time. Every year, tens of millions of people are displaced by natural disasters, and to date knowledge of their movement patterns has been sparse. The results of the study could therefore help aid organisations to prepare and execute their relief efforts following a major disaster. After the earthquake in Haiti, over 600,000 people left the capital Port-au-Prince, and over a million people were left homeless. With the help of mobile data provided by Digicel, the largest mobile operator in Haiti, the researchers looked for patterns in the movements of two million anonymous mobile users. "When disaster strikes we seek comfort in our nearest and dearest," says Xin Lu, who conducted the study with colleagues Linus Bengtsson and Petter Holme.