This study represents an important development in our modelling of volcanic plumes and allows more accurate assessments of the source conditions to be made during volcanic eruptions. The results of our study can complement the state-of-the-art forecasting tools used to predict the spreading of ash during volcanic crises.
The amount of ash released by Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano during April 2010 was significantly underestimated at the time of the eruption, according to a new model developed at the University of Bristol and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. This could have important consequences for airspace management during future eruptions. Explosive volcanic eruptions, such as that of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 and Grimsvötn in 2011, inject huge quantities of ash high into the atmosphere that can be spread over large distances. Airspace management during eruptions relies on accurate forecasting of the spreading of ash. A crucial requirement is an estimate of the rate at which material is delivered from the volcano to the atmosphere, known as the source mass flux. Previously, the source mass flux has been estimated directly from the height of the ash plume. This new study, led by Mark Woodhouse, a mathematician at the University of Bristol's Cabot Institute, demonstrates that wind conditions at the time of the eruption have a significant impact upon the height of the ash plume, and that neglecting the effects of wind can lead to significant under-predictions of the rate at which ash is erupted from the volcano.
TO READ THIS ARTICLE, CREATE YOUR ACCOUNT
And extend your reading, free of charge and with no commitment.
