2021 Northern Ireland census unlikely to clarify prospects of Irish unity

Expectations are rising that the 2021 Northern Ireland census may act as a trigger for a referendum on Irish unification, but 'new' census questions on religious background and national identity are likely to shape the debate about Northern Ireland's constitutional future, a new study reveals. While 'sectarian head-counting' has featured in Northern Irish politics since partition in 1921, the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA) introduced a mechanism for a 'border poll' on Irish unification. The 2016 Brexit referendum has led to heightened debate about such a poll being held. Censuses in Northern Ireland have long attracted political interest and debate because they reveal much about changing demographics - for example, with the gradual erosion of the Protestant majority argued to have contributed to a change in the Republican movement's tactics from violence to the ballot box, in the expectation that Irish unification is inevitable once a Catholic majority emerges. Publishing his findings in The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, University of Birmingham political scientist Dr. Laurence Cooley notes that addition of a question on 'religion brought up in' (added in 2001) has resulted in more people being classified as Protestant or Catholic than would be the case using the original religion question alone. The religious background question has strengthened 'two communities' interpretations of census results and delayed the apparent disappearance of the Protestant majority, whilst an extra question on national identity (added in 2011) has complicated assumptions about whether citizens would support Irish unification.