Researchers’ study accurately predicted location of Mauna Loa eruption

Research conducted by a University of Miami scientist and his graduate assistant accurately predicted which of the two rift zones of Hawaii's Mauna Loa volcano would erupt. The Mauna Loa, the world's largest active volcano, began erupting on Nov. 27 for the first time in nearly 40 years, spewing lava 100 feet to 200 feet into the air. Using a satellite-based technique called interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to measure surface displacements and to estimate how much magma was accumulating under the volcano during a six-year period (2014-2020), the two researchers proposed last year that the next movement of magma would be upwards into the volcano's summit and then northward, opening fissures in Mauna Loa's northeast rift zone. "And that's exactly what happened. We predicted it,” said Falk Amelung, a professor of marine geosciences at the University's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, who once lived on Oahu, part of the Hawaiian island chain, and has studied Mauna Loa extensively. "This represents years of hard work and intensive research paying off and shows that the precise evaluation of stress changes can be a powerful tool for informed forecasts of future activity.