Vaccination strategy can be optimised with computer model

HU research team simulates COVID-19 outbreaks with virtual agents A new model for simulating COVID-19 outbreaks helps to develop the right strategy for herd immunity for every municipality and city - even in the event of vaccine shortages. For, even after two years of the pandemic, countries, municipalities and cities are still experiencing severe COVID-19 outbreaks. The fact that the incidence can increase even in areas with a high vaccination rate shows that vaccination rate alone is not a guarantee of assured herd immunity. The composition of the population, the vaccination strategy, previous waves of infection and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions also have a strong impact on when sufficient immunity for community protection is attained within a population group. In order to better understand the influence of these diverse factors and be able to deploy measures in a more targeted manner during future outbreaks, the Theoretical Biophysics working group at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, headed by Edda Klipp, has developed a novel computer model for simulating COVID-19 outbreaks. The model and initial findings from simulations have now been published in the journal Advanced Science. Dr Björn Goldenbogen, a postdoc in the working group and the lead author of the study, explains: "Since our model is based on so-called agents - virtual persons who simulate the complex behaviour of real people very well - random encounters that are particularly relevant at the beginning of an outbreak are also taken into account.