Mathematical link between sociopolitical event and advanced cyberattacks

An interdisciplinary team of researchers from the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M) has created a mathematical model which makes it possible to explain, according to different sociopolitical variables, certain advanced cyberattacks that are usually carried out by States. This is a first step towards the ambitious goal of predicting the occurrence of these cyberattacks. The cyberattacks analysed by these researchers are known as Advanced Persistent Threats (known as APTs). "Their complexity indicates that it is the States that are behind them", explains one of the study's authors, Lorena González Manzano, lecturer at the Computer Security Lab in UC3M's Computer Science Department. In this research they have analysed whether there is a relationship between cyberattacks and certain strategic, economic and military events. Although there was some attribution of intention of these APTs, until now there wasn't a mathematical link that would allow these attacks to be modelled. However, this work led by lecturer González and published in the Security and Communication Networks journal indicates that it is possible to establish this link.