An eight-year analysis of the National Football League wagering market conducted by researchers Scott Tainsky, left, and Yoon Tae Sung suggests that teams that are the away favorites may have unrecognized potential when they’re coming off their bye weeks. Tainsky is a of recreation, sport and tourism in the College of Applied Health Sciences, and Sung was a graduate student at the time of the study.
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. Think your simple wagering strategy for professional football - such as always picking the home team or the underdog - is going to pay off in the long run? Don't bet on it, say sports economists Scott Tainsky and Yoon Tae Sung. Their analysis of National Football League game outcomes and betting strategies - such as picking the favorite, the underdog, the home team or the road team, or combinations of these factors - suggests that although these tactics may be successful over short periods of time such as a single season, the average bettor is unlikely to profit in the long run. The sole exception may be betting on teams coming off a bye week - especially if the team is the favorite and is playing a road game. Tainsky and Sung analyzed all regular season games from the NFL's 2002-2009 seasons to explore the efficiency of the sports betting market and whether simple wagering strategies could beat the market over time. Specifically, the researchers wanted to examine whether odds makers and bettors were attuned to any potential advantage posed by teams that were returning to play after a bye week, or a week off from competition. "Several psychology studies have shown that time off and vacations have positive effects on workers' performance, so, theoretically, football teams could have an edge over their opponents after a bye week," said Tainsky, a professor of recreation, sport and tourism in the College of Applied Health Sciences at the University of Illinois.
TO READ THIS ARTICLE, CREATE YOUR ACCOUNT
And extend your reading, free of charge and with no commitment.
