As the first Republican primary looms, who comes second matters

If a clear Trump alternative emerges, it could pressure other Republicans to bow out of the race, and clarify the choice for "never Trumpers" writes Dr Thomas Gift (UCL Political Science) in The Conversation. Former president Donald Trump has pitched himself as the  inevitable  Republican nominee for the White House in 2024. So much so that he's already  floating potential picks for his cabinet. The first Republican (GOP) primary in the country,  the Iowa caucuses , scheduled for January 15 2024, could prove Trump right, or (less likely) open the door for a challenger. Polling during December in Iowa  showed Trump far ahead of the other Republican candidates with 45% of the vote, trailed by Florida governor Ron DeSantis at 18% and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley at 15%. That's almost certainly too much ground to make up. But the fight for runner-up matters.
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