Data analysis changes everything - even soccer

For well over a century, baseball fans have pored over statistics on players and games, trying to determine what makes a winner. The revolutionary analysis in Michael Lewis' 2003 book "Moneyball" catapulted baseball data into the 21st century - and a new book by Cornell government professor Chris Anderson is about to do the same for soccer. "The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong" (Penguin Publishers), co-authored with David Sally, analyzes soccer data that's been collected for the last decade to reveal patterns that break sharply with conventional wisdom. Perhaps the book's biggest revelation is that the weakest players are more influential in determining wins and losses than the highly expensive and sought-after team superstars. The weaker players are more likely to make mistakes, such as committing unnecessary fouls, that result in a loss. And despite all the money poured into training, coincidence and luck turn out to be the deciding factor in almost half of all goals. When "The Numbers Game" was released in Europe earlier this year, it generated controversy in such high-profile outlets as the BBC and the Times of London.