Opinion: The West needs to prepare for guerrilla war in Ukraine

Mark Galeotti - The West has pledged its support to Ukraine with promises of weapons and other aid but now it needs to consider exactly what this means, says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov warned this week that convoys of weapons being sent to Ukraine would be considered legitimate military targets by Russia. It was a deliberately ambiguous and political statement more than anything else, but it is also a useful reminder of the need to think about the potential next phase in the war. It is still unclear whether the Russians will be able to recover from their unimpressive initial onslaught, but one way or another it seems likely that at least part of Ukraine will end up under Moscow's control. It also seems pretty certain that Ukrainians behind the lines will not quietly submit, but instead wage a partisan war against the occupiers. The West has made it pretty clear that it is  committed to supporting any such resistance  with weapons and other aid. If, as and when that happens, then we need to be considering quite what that will mean.