U-M expert to help Gallup review political polling methods

Michael Traugott ANN ARBOR-University of Michigan Michael Traugott, a nationally recognized expert in political communication and polls, is assisting the Gallup Organization with reviewing its survey methodology used in political polling. The polling organization tracks attitudes and behaviors worldwide on many topics, including the U.S. presidential elections. Traugott will examine the recent election in which Gallup estimated a stronger performance by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who lost to President Barack Obama. "Because Gallup has been a leader in the polling industry and very forthcoming about their methods, I expect that whatever we learn will be of general use and value to all pollsters," said Traugott, a professor of communication studies and political science. Some preliminary results might be available by spring, but Gallup officials may also design additional studies to test specific hypotheses developed with Traugott. According to Gallup officials, they will review their methodology used over the years in the context of last November's elections. Some aspects include: Cell phone sampling and phone status weighting (half of the s during the final month before the election were conducted by cell phone) Registered voter screening process Likely voter screening process Measurement of early voting Impact of campaign and get-out-the-vote efforts on the final voting electorate During the campaign, Gallup produced estimates that showed a stronger performance for Romney than most other polls.