Welsh national identity central to outcome of 2021 Senedd elections, research concludes

Voters' views on national identity limited the gains that Labour's opponents could expect to achieve at last year's Senedd elections, new research from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre says. Writing in the journal Parliamentary Affairs, academics analysed data collected from the 2021 Welsh Election Study, which explores voter attitudes and behaviour through a series of online polls. The results they say, show the Labour vote is particularly strong among voters who feel a relatively strong attachment to both British and Welsh identities, "a group which constitutes a majority of the electorate". The study shows Plaid Cymru do best among respondents with a strong Welsh and weak British identity. Conversely, the Conservatives do far better among those with strong British and weak Welsh identities. Lead author Dr Jac Larner said: "The Welsh election of the 6 May 2021 delivered a vote of confidence in both Welsh Labour and the wider devolution project. "The Conservatives in Wales cannot currently win the support of voters who consider themselves primarily or exclusively Welsh, while Plaid Cymru equally struggle to find votes from those who consider themselves either fully or partially British.