The Mathematics of Insurgency

— Coral Gables — University of Miami physicist Neil Johnson and his collaborators have developed a simple mathematical model that can estimate the progression of fatal terrorist and insurgency attacks around the world. The report unveils a new mathematical model that utilizes the time interval between the first couple of attacks in order to forecast the evolution of the conflict. The study titled, ? Pattern in Escalations in Insurgent and Terrorist Activity, ? establishes how the frequency of fatal attacks escalates following initial incidents arising in particular parts of the world. This simple tool can be useful in creating a plan of action. The researchers describe a sequence in the timing and frequency of the attacks by using a simple power-law progress curve. The relationship between actions of the insurgency and the counterforce is the result of the two sides continually adapting to each other's strategies. 'This work is getting to the heart of how the two sides fight - and more than just how they fight - it shows us how they learn over time to adapt to what the other side is doing,' said Johnson, head of an interdisciplinary research group in Complexity at the UM College of Arts and Sciences and principal investigator of this study.