New maps to predict spread of Ebola

Oxford University research to predict the geographic spread of Ebola virus in West Africa has been funded by the UK government and the Wellcome Trust. The Department for International Development (DFID) and the Wellcome Trust are releasing £1.34m from a joint fund to support five projects, run by leading British and international researchers, which will improve evidence and understanding of the Ebola outbreak. In September this year Oxford University scientists developed maps showing where the Ebola virus is likely to be carried by animals and there is a risk of transmission to humans triggering future outbreaks. The new project will use data on human mobility, population density, and transport infrastructure in West African countries to create maps predicting how the current Ebola outbreak is likely to spread through human populations. The project, led by Professor Simon Hay and Dr Nick Golding of Oxford's Department of Zoology, builds on methods developed to map the potential spread of diseases such as dengue fever and malaria, however it is the first time that these techniques have been applied to Ebola. The new maps will give indications of the risk of the virus spreading to neighbouring countries and will include summaries of health centres most likely to see new cases. Both the maps themselves and the online tools used to create them will be made freely available to help other teams studying and responding to the current and future Ebola outbreaks.