Visa restrictions can lead to increase in illegal migration

While Government-imposed restrictions on immigration can reduce overall migration, they can also be ineffective or even counterproductive, pushing more would-be migrants into unauthorised channels, finds new UCL-led research in collaboration with Royal Holloway and University of Birmingham. The study, published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , investigated how individuals are likely to move from one country to another based on varying levels of restriction. In particular, they looked at student and high-skilled visas, low-skilled and family visas. The team found that restricting students and those eligible for high-skilled visas does little to change the overall volume or composition of incoming migrants. Whereas restricting family and low-skilled visas appears to reduce overall migration, but also diverts a significant portion of aspiring migrants to unauthorised channels. Illegal reorientation is especially problematic when government restrictions are placed on family reunification, where roughly a quarter of all those who would have migrated legally would, instead, move abroad through illegal channels. Lead academic Miranda Simon (UCL Security & Crime Science and UCL Political Science) said: "We show that even minimal visa requirements can significantly reduce immigration, but this comes at the cost of reorienting aspiring migrants towards unauthorised channels."  "The largest reorientation towards unauthorised channels happens when the family route is closed, because it is the most easily accessible out of those considered.