Wider lockdown key to preventing Covid-19 surge if schools reopen

Wider restrictions must remain in place if schools reopen in March in order to keep the epidemic's R number below 1 in the UK, a new UCL-led modelling study suggests. The pre-print study, published on the site medRxiv, suggested that reopening schools to all pupils in some form on March 8 may lead to an increase in cases but that, if a broader lockdown remained, it was unlikely to cause the R rate to go above 1 and lead to the epidemic growing again. The research team, co-led by UCL/Oxford University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), used a mathematical model developed by the Institute for Disease Modeling, Covasim, to assess the impact of various scenarios of schools reopening on March 8 on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, including the "Kent variant", B. The model also accounted for a continued roll-out of vaccines. They found that opening schools in a staggered fashion was likely to lead to a smaller increase in cases. Reopening only primary schools and exam-critical year groups in secondary school - Year 11 and Year 13 - would lead to the smallest increase, the researchers found. Reopening primary schools fully, but with secondary schools operating on a two-weeks-on, two-weeks-off rota system would also lead to a smaller increase than fully opening all schools at the same time. Lead author Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths (UCL and The Queen's College, Oxford University) said: "Our findings suggest that reopening schools on March 8, while keeping the rest of society locked down, is a plausible alternative to continued full national lockdown and is likely to prevent the epidemic from growing again.