Lifesaving impact of early warning systems in Ukraine

Public safety alerts have saved countless lives in Ukraine-but lose effectiveness over time, according to new joint study. As many as 45% of casualties were prevented in the first few months of the war in Ukraine through heightened public responsiveness and the Ukrainian government's communications strategy, according to a new study by researchers from the University of Michigan, the University of Chicago and Ipsos. Paper: Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine The paper, which pairs an innovative methodology with the authors' deep geopolitical expertise, is the first comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of air raid alerts during the conflict. It appears in the April 25 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Co-authors David Van Dijcke of U-M, Austin Wright of the University of Chicago and Mark Polyak of Ipsos have provided substantial evidence that policymakers must sustain and adapt their messaging during prolonged conflicts in order to keep civilians safe. The study provides valuable lessons not only for the Ukrainian government, but for another 39 countries that have developed similar early warning systems. "What combination of messaging and technologies is likely to work in conflict conditions, and how to measure the effectiveness of these strategies, is key to avoiding civilian casualties, especially as geopolitical tensions continue to rise in the post-Soviet space,” said Polyak, president of analytics at Ipsos, North America.