EPFL mathematicians have shown that the risk of extreme climate events is largely underestimated. They are developing a model for better understanding the impact of climate change. Remember the 2003 heat wave? According to the standard weather models, it was impossible. Mathematicians from EPFL's Chair of Statistics, however, say that there was a five in ten thousand chance for the event to occur. That's a pretty slight chance, but not completely negligible. To reach this result, they developed a model that specifically deals with extreme weather events. Thanks to this tool, which takes into account various parameters such as climate change, the researchers are already able to more precisely predict the risk of extreme phenomena for the upcoming decades.
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