Covid-19 highly uncertain, global costs could be very high

Image: Lannon Harley - As coronavirus spreads across the globe, new modelling from The Australian National University (ANU) is set to help policymakers respond to the economic costs in the face of a pandemic and as the virus evolves. The research paper, which models seven scenarios, is the first wide-ranging global economic assessment of the effects of Covid-19. Four of the seven scenarios in the paper examine the impact of Covid-19 spreading to other countries outside of China, ranging from low to high severity. A seventh scenario examines a global impact where a mild pandemic occurs each year indefinitely. Even in the paper's 'low severity scenario', the estimated loss to global GDP is $US2.4 trillion, with more than 15 million deaths globally. The costs rise sharply as the level of severity increases, with the highest potential cost to global GDP rising to $US9 trillion. The authors call for a coordinated policy response to the virus, as well as greater investment in public health in all countries.