Many methods and assumptions of the polling and forecasting process will be open to examination in the wake of the presidential election, says University of Illinois political science Brian Gaines. Photo by L. Brian Stauffer
Just weeks earlier, Hillary Clinton seemed headed for a big win. And though the race had tightened in the lead-up to Nov. 8, almost every respected election forecast had her as a strong favorite. Betting markets were predicting Clinton as well. And so was Illinois political scientist Brian Gaines, an expert on polling and public opinion. Gaines spoke with News Bureau social sciences editor Craig Chamberlain about what might have happened and the challenges of getting it right. So just how wrong were the forecasters, pollsters, bettors and experts? Almost all of the short-term forecasters said Clinton's probability of winning was high, in the range of 60-90 percent.
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