Michigan’s economy expected to grow amid political uncertainty

ANN ARBOR'The Michigan economy starts its eighth year of post-recession recovery with continuing job growth on the horizon for the next two years, say University of Michigan economists. In their annual November forecast of Michigan's economy, George Fulton and colleagues Gabriel Ehrlich, Donald Grimes and Michael McWilliams say the state will add an average of 45,800 jobs per year in 2017 and 2018. That rate, however, is slowing from an average pace of roughly 70,000 jobs per year from 2014 to 2016. "Slowing growth in Detroit light vehicle sales and manufacturing employment this year has led some observers to wonder whether the Michigan economy's momentum is fading," said Fulton, director of U-M's Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. "We expect two more years of employment growth for the Michigan economy, albeit at a slower pace." In all, Michigan will have gained more than 605,700 jobs during the economic recovery from summer 2009 through the end of 2018?returning the job count to levels posted in spring 2003 and recouping seven out of 10 jobs lost since mid-2000. The U-M economists predict employment gains of 41,600 jobs during 2017 and 50,000 jobs in 2018. So while the recent election results have introduced substantial uncertainty regarding the future direction of national economic policy, it's unlikely to push Michigan into an employment downturn in the next two years.