New web tool improves rapid ash cloud forecasts

A new web tool, created by NERC-funded researchers at the University of Bristol, could pave the way for better management of airspace during volcanic crises. PlumeRise is designed to give more accurate estimates of the amount of ash pumped into the atmosphere during a volcanic eruption, a vital piece of information for ash cloud forecasters. It has already revealed that the 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which grounded planes and cancelled Easter holiday plans across Europe, may have unleashed up to 10 times more ash than originally thought. Previous estimates relied on measurements of the height of the volcanic plume, but that approach is only reliable in still air. To take account of the effects of the wind, mathematicians and Earth scientists at the University of Bristol have combined their expertise to create a new mathematical model. The model shows that strong winds prevent ash plumes from reaching as high as they would in calm conditions. This means that ash estimates that rely on plume-height measurements alone can dramatically undershoot the real figure.