Rapid shift in loggerhead sea turtles’ range

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Between 1997 and 2024, endangered North Pacific loggerhead sea turtles shifted their foraging northward at a rate six times faster than the average for most marine species. The turtles face risks as they adapt to ocean warming caused by climate change.


    Loggerhead sea turtles are sentinels for changing oceans. In a new analysis covering nearly 30 years of data on turtle movements, sea surface temperatures, and seawater chlorophyll levels, Stanford scientists found that the reptiles are shifting their range at record pace, racing to keep up as their favorite foraging grounds move northward.

    "Changes to the ocean are happening faster than expected," said Dana Briscoe , a lead data scientist with the Stanford Doerr School for Sustainability and first author of the Jan. 22 study in Frontiers of Marine Science . "Animals are moving farther north at a rate faster than anticipated to be able to synchronize with favorable habitats."

    As Earth’s atmosphere warms, surface temperatures in the seas have climbed too. Some of the most dramatic changes have occurred in the last decade, with a surge in marine heatwaves - sustained periods of sea surface temperatures higher than 1 degree Celsius above average. "In the past decade in the Eastern North Pacific, we’ve seen an increase in the frequency and the strength of these marine heatwaves," said Briscoe. "That has profound implications for marine life."

    Lead author Dana Briscoe (left) and co-author Catherine Lee Hing (right) attach a satellite tag to a North Pacific loggerhead sea turtle at the Port of Nagoya Public Aquarium in Nagoya, Japan.

    To better understand these changes, the Stanford scientists analyzed 16 years of turtle tracking data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ending in 2013 and additional data from a

    Loggerhead sea turtles are cold-blooded and sensitive to slight shifts in water temperatures. Even turtles raised in captivity, which comprised most of those tracked across the past three decades, have a keen ability to find cool waters that host their favorite foods - namely, invertebrates like crabs, barnacles, and jellyfish.

    The loggerheads of the North Pacific are one of five loggerhead populations considered endangered. Juvenile turtles flock from the coasts of Japan to a region known as the North Pacific Transition Zone, an area teeming with life at the boundary of subarctic and subtropical waters. "It’s basically the buffet line for the North Pacific," said study co-author Larry Crowder , the Edward F. Ricketts Provostial Professor and a professor of oceans in the Doerr School of Sustainability.

    The scientists combined records of turtle travels in this buffet with satellite data on sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a, the main form of chlorophyll used by ocean organisms in photosynthesis. Greener, chlorophyll-rich water indicates an abundance of phytoplankton, the base of the ocean food chain, and thus a more productive ecosystem.

    The team found that between 1997 and 2024, turtles shifted their foraging northward by an average of 200 kilometers (about 125 miles) per decade - a rate six times faster than the average for most marine species. Even with this northward shift, average surface temperatures in the turtles’ foraging area warmed by 1.6 degrees Celsius over the 27-year period. Meanwhile, chlorophyll concentrations dipped by 19%, suggesting lower ecosystem productivity. In other words, "the buffet has less food in it than it used to," said Crowder.

    *:last-child]:su-mb-0 [&At least in the short term, I expect the turtles to be able to adapt effectively."

    Larry Crowder Edward F. Ricketts Provostial Professor The results suggest that the turtles are, so far, capable of adapting to the rapid marine changes. "At least in the short term, I expect the turtles to be able to adapt effectively," said Crowder. "They seem to be able to keep up and stay in the habitats that provide them with the most food."

    But rapid range shifts don’t come without risks for the turtles. As they follow foraging sites north, the turtles may risk increased entanglements and collisions with fishing equipment. These risks might also extend to other species that inhabit the foraging grounds alongside the turtles, such as seabirds, marine mammals, and sharks. The turtles’ movement signals that these species are likely also moving their ranges.

    It remains unknown how the turtles’ greater migration patterns may be affected. Historically, some turtles have voyaged to coastal waters off Baja California. If turtles attempt to reach coasts farther north, they risk getting caught in cold currents that can render them weak and unable to swim, or " cold-stunned." Last year, cold-stunned loggerhead turtles washed ashore on Oregon beaches in record numbers.

    The researchers will continue to pursue these questions as part of their turtle-tracking project, known as Loggerhead Sea Turtle Research Experiment on the Thermal Corridor Hypothesis (STRETCH). In July, they will release 25 satellite-tagged turtles into the North Pacific, the project’s third cohort. The turtles are allowing the scientists to test hypotheses about ocean currents and migration that were previously unknowable.

    "With each year that we release more turtles, we’re finding new and novel things," says Briscoe. "In a lot of ways, the animals are the oceanographers, and we’re the ones that are learning from them."

    The researchers have created a website called Loggerhead STRETCH (Sea Turtle Research Experiment on the Thermal Corridor Hypothesis), where anyone can check on the turtles’ progress. Every time a turtle comes to the surface, the small tag on its shell will ping the location to a satellite and show up on a map.

    "},"imageData":null}"

    The researchers have created a website called Loggerhead STRETCH (Sea Turtle Research Experiment on the Thermal Corridor Hypothesis), where anyone can check on the turtles’ progress. Every time a turtle comes to the surface, the small tag on its shell will ping the location to a satellite and show up on a map.

    Larry Crowder is also a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment , a member of Stanford Bio-X , and a professor, by courtesy, of biology. Additional Stanford co-authors include Bianca Santos and Catherine Lee Hing, PhD students in the Doerr School of Sustainability’s Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER). 

    Additional co-authors are affiliated with the University of California, Santa Cruz; Golden Honu Services of Oceania; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Hawaii Preparatory Academy; and Kochi University.

    This story was originally published by Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

    "}" *:last-child]:su-mb-0"

    Larry Crowder is also a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment , a member of Stanford Bio-X , and a professor, by courtesy, of biology. Additional Stanford co-authors include Bianca Santos and Catherine Lee Hing, PhD students in the Doerr School of Sustainability’s Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER). 

    Additional co-authors are affiliated with the University of California, Santa Cruz; Golden Honu Services of Oceania; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Hawaii Preparatory Academy; and Kochi University.

    This story was originally published by Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

    A scholar of organizational behavior in the GSB and a member of its leadership team for many years, Soule will become dean of the business school in mid-June.

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    Pinyon-juniper woodlands across the western U.S. have been weakened by higher temperatures, declining snowpack, insect outbreaks, and massive wildfires. Stanford researchers are working with tribal nations, government agencies, and colleagues at the University of California Berkeley to find solutions in the Eastern Sierra.

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