Stalling improvements in cardiovascular disease rates could cost £54bn

Cardiovascular disease A slowdown in improvements in cardiovascular diseases, such as heart disease and stroke, in England and Wales could cost £54billion in health and social care costs between 2020 and 2029, finds a new modelling study co-led by UCL researchers. In the late part of the 20^th century and up to 2010, high-income countries saw dramatic declines in cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, since 2011, falls in CVD rates have stalled, including in England and Wales. To analyse the impact of this, researchers used the IMPACT Better Ageing Model (IMPACT BAM), a mathematical model, to examine the relationship between CVD on dementia, disability, and economic costs, based on data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, which has been linked with NHS Hospital Episode Statistics for England. Published in PLoS ONE, the first of its kind study anticipated that plateauing rates of CVD could cost £13billion in NHS healthcare costs, £1.5billion in social care costs, £8billion in the value of informal care, and £32billion in the value of lost "quality adjusted life years" (QALYs). Professor Eric Brunner (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health), lead investigator of the study at UCL, said: "Our modelling work using official UK data highlights the increasing pressure, year on year, in the social care system for older people. "Financial resources and trained personnel are both in short supply. Poorer people and their families are most vulnerable to the growing gap between supply and need, as they are unable to pay for social care." Evidence suggests that Covid-19 is a risk factor for new CVD, and existing cardiovascular disease can mean worse outcomes with Covid-19 infection.