The commentary notes that cutting family migration by a small amount can have the same impact on net migration in the long term as cutting student migration by a larger amount.
New analysis by Oxford University's Migration Observatory shows that any short term cut to net-migration brought about by reductions in immigration will be partially reversed in the long term because of declining emigration. The researchers are calling this a 'bounce effect'. In its latest commentary the Migration Observatory demonstrates how this bounce takes place by looking at short-term and longer-term impacts of reduced immigration on net migration. They say the bounce effect is an important and often overlooked issue in the net migration debate. The commentary demonstrates that cutting immigration of groups that are numerically large, but who tend not to settle in the UK, such as students, can lead to a dramatic short-term reduction in net migration that is partially reversed over time because of declining emigration. They argue this makes overall cuts in net migration harder to achieve in the long term. Scott Blinder, Senior Researcher at the Migration Observatory, said: 'Cutting immigration for groups with low settlement rates will give strong results for a couple of years, while the immigration numbers are down and emigration is not yet affected, but it sets the stage for a rebound a few years down the line, when emigration will decline, and net migration will bounce back up.
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