Will Paris Succeed? Research Assesses if Governments Will Make Pledges a Reality

UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy finds that American credibility on climate change is lagging behind other regions, especially Europe. Much of the world's efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change hinge on the success of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. A new Nature Climate Change study is the first to provide scientific evidence assessing how effective governments will be at implementing their commitments to the agreement that will reduce CO2 emissions causing climate change. The research reveals that the countries with the boldest pledges are also the most likely to achieve their goals. Europe takes the lead with the strongest commitments that are also the most credible; however, findings suggest the U.S., despite having a less ambitious commitment under Paris, is not expected to meet its pledges. The study from the University of California San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy integrates a novel sample of registrants of the Conference of Parties (COP) , consisting of more than 800 diplomatic and scientific experts who, for decades, have participated in climate policy debates. This expert group was important to survey because they are the people "in the room" when key policy decisions are made and therefore in a unique position to evaluate what their countries and other countries are likely to achieve.