With or without Erdogan, Turkey is at a political turning point

May's elections hold the key to Turkey's political future - domestically and internationally. o 8 min read On the cusp of the May elections, the most astute analysts of Turkish politics were confident that Erdogan's two decade of ruling was coming to an end. Discredited by economic setbacks as well as by the high death toll of the February s'earthquake, Erdogan political future seemed doomed. Against all odds, on May 15, 2023 , he garnered 49.40% of the vote versus 44.96% for his main opponent, Kilicdaroglu from the CHP party. So it seems that he is well positioned to win the second round of the elections on May 28 and embark on his third decade in power. However, to the distress of analysts and his detractors, it appears that the result of the first tour is the outcome of a free and fair election with no evidence so far of wide-range electoral fraud. As pointed out by Frank Schwabe , head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe delegation [Turkey], an important caveat to this optimistic view is that "Key political and social figures are in prison even after judgments of the European Court of Human Rights, media freedom is severely restricted and there is a climate of self-censorship." Even if Erdogan wins the second tour, he will nevertheless have to reassess his policies and deal with three main outcomes of this historical election.