Climate change to turn up the heat in England

After its hottest year on record in 2014, England is likely to experience even more record-breaking warm years as a result of human-induced climate change. In a study published today in Environmental Research Letters, an international team of researchers has shown England is at least 13 times more likely to experience record-breaking hot years, as a result of anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change. Doctor Andrew King, from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science at the University of Melbourne, led the research. This is according to climate model simulations and detailed analyses of the Central England Temperature (CET) record-the world's longest instrumental temperature record dating back to 1659. The results of the study showed that human activities have a large influence on extreme warm years in England, which the researchers claim is remarkable given England is such a small region of the world. "When you look at average annual temperatures over larger regions of the world, such as the whole of Europe, there is a lower variability in temperatures from year to year compared with smaller areas," Dr King said.  "As a result of this low variability, it is easier to spot anomalies. This is why larger regions tend to produce stronger attribution statements, so it is remarkable that we get such a clear anthropogenic influence on temperatures in a relatively small area across central England." To arrive at their results, the researchers firstly used climate model simulations to calculate the likelihood of very warm years when there is only natural forcings on the climate and no human influence, and then when there are both natural forcings and human influence.