Zika epidemic likely to end within three years

The current Zika epidemic in Latin America is likely to burn itself out within three years, suggests new research. The findings, from scientists at Imperial College London, also conclude the epidemic cannot be contained with existing control measures. The team, who published their findings , predict the next large-scale epidemic is unlikely to emerge for at least another ten years - although there is a possibility of smaller outbreaks in this time. Professor Neil Ferguson , lead author of the research from the School of Public Health at Imperial, explained: "This study uses all available data to provide an understanding of how the disease will unfold - and allows us to gauge the threat in the imminent future. Our analysis suggests that Zika spread is not containable, but that the epidemic will burn itself out within 2-3 years." In the study, Professor Ferguson and colleagues from the Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial, collated all existing data for Zika transmission across Latin America. The team then used this information, alongside data on similar viruses such as dengue, to build a mathematical model to represent the current epidemic, and future waves of transmission. There are currently more questions surrounding Zika than answers - and only through a coordinated global research effort will we find the answers we desperately need.