The ’winter is coming’ effect. Figure A shows the variation in the birth rate (pathogen transmission rate, solid line) and death rate (recovery rate of infected hosts, dotted line) over time (the time unit is a day). The gray shading represents ’winter’ for the pathogen (in ’winter’ the birth rate is lower than the death rate). Figure B shows the probability of the emergence of the pathogen (red curve), depending on the day of the year at which it is introduced. This probability is very low in ’winter’ (low transmission rate), but also just before winter (red shading). This very significant decrease in the probability of emergence just before winter is the ’winter is coming’ effect.
The 'winter is coming' effect. Figure A shows the variation in the birth rate (pathogen transmission rate, solid line) and death rate (recovery rate of infected hosts, dotted line) over time (the time unit is a day). The gray shading represents 'winter' for the pathogen (in 'winter' the birth rate is lower than the death rate). Figure B shows the probability of the emergence of the pathogen (red curve), depending on the day of the year at which it is introduced. This probability is very low in 'winter' (low transmission rate), but also just before winter (red shading). This very significant decrease in the probability of emergence just before winter is the 'winter is coming' effect. Sylvain Gandon - Seasonal fluctuations drive the dynamics of many infectious diseases.
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