Regional disparities in psychosis rates shown by new prediction tool

Psychosis rates for all local areas in England have been estimated using a new modelling tool developed by UCL researchers. The method is cited in government guidance on how policy makers can allocate mental health resources for people experiencing their first episode of psychosis. The PsyMaptic tool estimates the expected number of people who will newly develop psychosis for each locality, providing both a current and forward-looking estimate up to 2025. The lead developers, based at UCL Psychiatry and UCL Statistical Science, have published their findings in The British Journal of Psychiatry . Researchers pulled together data on risk factors including deprivation, ethnicity, age, gender, cannabis use and social fragmentation, to predict how many people will develop psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia. They validated their method by comparing results to actual incidence data from 2017. The new population-level prediction tool builds on an earlier version released in 2013, which features in guidelines from The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), and has now been updated with more local detail down to the electoral ward level, the inclusion of cannabis use, and also to be a forward-looking prediction tool.