A better way to tell which species are vulnerable

Intertidal ecosystems containing species of mussels, barnacles, and algae were one of the systems with fluctuating populations analyzed by the team. They developed a new way to detect species that are vulnerable to perturbations, such as waves and storms that affect intertidal ecosystems. Credits : Courtesy of the researchers New analysis takes account of natural fluctuations and predictability to assess which parts of an ecosystem are most threatened by climate change and other disruptions. Wildfires, floods, pollution, and overfishing are among the many disruptions that can change the balance of ecosystems, sometimes endangering the future of entire species. But evaluating these ecosystems to determine which species are most at risk, in order to focus preservation actions and policies where they are most needed, is a challenging task. Most such efforts assume that ecosystems are essentially in a state of equilibrium, and that external perturbations cause a temporary shift before things eventually return to that equilibrium state. But that assumption fails to account for the reality that ecosystems are often in flux, with the relative abundances of their different components shifting on timetables of their own.