How to phase out fossil fuels and still win an election

decorative A new study by UCL researchers shows how it's possible to phase out fossil fuels without sacrificing electoral popularity - even in coal mining regions. The new paper, published in the American Political Science Review , illustrates how a government that phased out coal mining was able to avoid a backlash from the affected coal regions. The researchers studied the Spanish Socialist Party (PSoe) government's policy to phase out coal mining, which was negotiated with affected unions and businesses shortly before Spain's 2019 national election. Under the resulting "Just Transition Agreement," 28 coal mines were to be closed by the end of 2019 in three provinces-Asturias, Teruel, and León-and the government agreed to provide €250 million in support to affected workers and investment in affected municipalities, spread over eight years (2019-2027). The researchers used statistical methods to compare the change in PSoe's vote share (relative to the preceding election) in municipalities subject to the agreement with its change in vote share in similar, non-coal regions. They found that the margin by which PSoe's vote share increased was higher in the coal mining municipalities, implying that the agreement boosted PSoe's vote in those communities. Further statistical tests and interviews conducted by the research team suggest that this electoral boost was driven by unions' support of the agreement.