In a First, Scientists Successfully Forecast Undersea Eruption

Crew members prepare the remotely operated vehicle Jason to dive to Axial Seamount. (Bill Chadwick, Oregon State University) Researchers returning from a cruise some 250 miles off the coast of Oregon have reported seeing a volcanic eruption on the seafloor that they accurately forecast five years ago—the first successful prediction of an undersea eruption. The event took place at Axial Seamount, one of the most active and intensely studied undersea peaks in the world. Bill Chadwick , an Oregon State University geologist, and Scott Nooner , a geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory , have monitored the seamount for more than a decade; in 2006 they published a paper saying that Axial would erupt before 2014, when seafloor-surface measurements had reached a threshold indicating that the volcano had filled with enough magma to rupture. "Volcanoes are notoriously difficult to forecast, and much less is known about undersea volcanoes than those on land, so the ability to monitor Axial Seamount, and determine that it was on a path toward an impending eruption is pretty exciting," said Chadwick, who was chief scientist on the recent expedition. Arm of the remotely operated vehicle Jason samples freshly erupted lava on Axial Seamount, July 27, 2011. (Bill Chadwick, Oregon State University.