Lean times ahead: Preparing for an energy-constrained future

ANN ARBOR-Some time this century, the era of cheap and abundant energy will end, and Western industrial civilization will likely begin a long, slow descent toward a resource-limited future characterized by "involuntary simplicity." That's the picture painted by University of Michigan environmental psychologist Raymond De Young, who argues in a new paper that behavioral scientists should begin now to prepare the public for this "energy descent," which he defines as a tightening of energy supplies accompanied by "a persistent step-wise downshift" to a new, reduced-consumption normal. De Young describes the energy descent and the role of behavioral scientists in the November edition of the journal Frontiers in Psychology. By the end of the century, day-to-day activities will need to consume nearly an order of magnitude less energy and materials than currently used, said De Young, an associate professor of conservation behavior at U-M's School of Natural Resources and Environment. Many Americans will likely be living in much smaller homes that contain far fewer consumer goods and modern conveniences, according to De Young. Air travel and automobile ownership may be unrealistic for many, due largely to declining fuel availability. The days of cheap, reliable electricity from the grid may be gone, and reliance on locally grown foods will increase, he said.