New projection shows global food demand doubling by 2050

Increasing yield in poor countries could lower environmental impact Media Note: Embargoed until 2 p.m. Nov. MINNEAPOLIS / ST. PAUL (11/21/2011) —Global food demand could double by 2050, according to a new projection by David Tilman, Regents Professor of Ecology in the University of Minnesota's College of Biological Sciences, and colleagues, including Jason Hill, assistant professor in the College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences. Producing that amount of food could significantly increase levels of carbon dioxide and nitrogen in the environment and cause the extinction of numerous species. But this can be avoided, the paper shows, if the high-yielding technologies of rich nations are adapted to work in poor nations, and if all nations use nitrogen fertilizers more efficiently. "Agriculture's greenhouse gas emissions could double by 2050 if current trends in global food production continue," Tilman said. "Global agriculture already accounts for a third of all greenhouse gas emissions." Much of these emissions come from land clearing, which also threatens species with extinction. The article shows that if poor nations continue current practices, they will clear a land area larger than the United States (two and a half billion acres) by 2050.