Prepare now for a winter COVID-19 peak, say UCL experts

The UK must prepare now for a potential new wave of coronavirus infections this winter that could be more serious than the first, says a new Academy of Medical Sciences report involving UCL. An advisory group of 37 experts created the ' Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21 ' report following a request by the Government's Chief Scientific Advisor. Academics on the group included UCL's Professor Dame Anne Johnson (UCL Institute for Global Health), Professor Andrew Hayward (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health), Professor Rosalind Smyth (UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health), Dr Nigel Field (UCL Institute for Global Health) and Dr Laura Shallcross (UCL Institute of Health Informatics). Dr Heather Bailey (UCL Institute for Global Health), Dr Guy Harling (UCL Institute for Global Health) and Dr Reecha Sofat (UCL Institute of Health Informatics) also supported the report's development by working closely with the advisory group and the Secretariat. The report notes there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the COVID-19 epidemic will evolve in the UK over the coming months, but suggests a 'reasonable worst-case scenario' to prepare for is one where the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to (Rt value) rises to 1.7 from September 2020 onwards. The group stresses that 'intense preparation' is urgently needed throughout the rest of July and August to reduce the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed and to save lives this winter.