Rainfall’s natural variation hides climate change signal

New research from The Australian National University (ANU) and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science suggests natural rainfall variation is so great that it could take a human lifetime for significant climate signals to appear in regional or global rainfall measures. Even exceptional droughts like those over the Murray Darling Basin (2000-2009) and the 2011 to 2017 Californian drought fit within the natural variations in the long-term precipitation records, according to the statistical method used by the researchers. This has significant implications for policymakers in the water resources, irrigation and agricultural industries. "Our findings suggest that for most parts of the world, we won't be able to recognise long term or permanent changes in annual rainfall driven by climate change until they have already occurred and persisted for some time," said  Professor Michael Roderick from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences. "This means those who make decisions around the construction of desalination plants or introduce new policies to conserve water resources will effectively be making these decisions blind. "Conversely, if they wait and don't act until the precipitation changes are recognised they will be acting too late. It puts policymakers in an invidious position." To get their results the researchers first tested the statistical approach on the 244-year-long observational record of precipitation at the Radcliffe Observatory in Oxford, UK.