"Regret-free" approaches for adapting agriculture to climate change

A new study calls for governments and farmers to adapt to climate shifts, despite uncertainties about what growing conditions will look like decades from now. The study, from the CGIAR research programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which involves researchers from the University of Leeds, shows how decision-makers can sift through scientific uncertainty to understand where there is a general consensus. Moreover, it encourages a broader approach to agriculture adaptation that looks beyond climate models to consider the socioeconomic conditions on the ground. These conditions, such as a particular farmer's or community's capacity to make the necessary farming changes, will determine whether a particular adaptation strategy is likely to succeed. "Getting farmers, communities, governments, donors and other stakeholders to embrace various adaptation strategies can end up being equally or more important than seeking higher levels of scientific certainty from a climate model," says Professor Andy Challinor, from the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds, who co-leads research on climate adaptation at CCAFS and was an author of the study. "There is no question that climate science is constantly improving. But scientists also need to understand the broader processes involved in agriculture adaptation and consider how we can better communicate what we do know in ways that are relevant to a diverse audience." The study uses examples from the programme's recent work in the developing world to illustrate how some countries have pursued climate change adaptation strategies.