Study models the past to understand the future of strengthening El Niño

Using state-of-the-art computer models maintained at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, researchers determined that El Niño has intensified over the last 6,000 years. This pier and cafe are in Ocean Beach, California. Photo: Jon Sullivan It was fishermen off the coast of Peru who first recognized the anomaly, hundreds of years ago. Every so often, their usually cold, nutrient-rich water would turn warm and the fish they depended on would disappear. Then there was the ceaseless rain. They called it "El Niño" - The Boy, or Christmas Boy - because of its timing near the holiday each time it returned, every three to seven years. El Niño is not a contemporary phenomenon; it's long been the Earth's dominant source of year-to-year climate fluctuation.