NOAA forecasts below-average summer ’dead zone’ in Gulf of Mexico

A team of scientists including a University of Michigan aquatic ecologist is forecasting a summer "dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico that will cover an estimated 4,155 square miles, which is below the 5,364-square-mile average over the 36-year history of dead zone measurements in the region. The 2023 Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast was released today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which funds the work. "The action plan to reduce the size of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone has been in place for over two decades, but each year the size of the dead zone varies around the long-term average. That average is almost three times the goal set in 2001,” said U-M's Don Scavia , who leads one of several research teams partnering with the federal government on the annual forecast. "Year to year fluctuations in the dead zone are driven primarily by weather in the Corn Belt, but the long-term trends are driven by nutrient loads from agriculture. Lack of a downward trend in the dead zone illustrates that current efforts to reduce those loads have not been effective,” said Scavia, professor emeritus at the School for Environment and Sustainability. "Clearly, the federal and state agencies and Congress continue to prioritize industrial agriculture over water quality.