Smaller-than-average harmful algal bloom predicted for western Lake Erie

NOAA and its research partners, including the University of Michigan, are forecasting that western Lake Erie will experience a smaller-than-average harmful algal bloom this summer, which would make it less severe than 2022. This year's bloom is expected to measure 3, with a potential range of 2 - 4.5 on the severity index-whereas last year's bloom was measured at a 6.8, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced today. The index is based on the bloom's biomass-the amount of algae-during the peak 30 days of the bloom. An index above 5 indicates more severe blooms. Blooms over 7 are particularly severe, with extensive scum formation and coverage affecting the lake. The largest blooms occurred in 2011, with a severity index of 10, and 2015, with a severity index of 10.5. "While this year's forecast is smaller than the long-term average, it was driven primarily by the lowest river flows in the past 10 years.