This year’s Atlantic hurricane season could prove unpredictable

One of the first signs that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would predict a quiet Atlantic hurricane season emerged in early March, when the agency announced that the La Niña weather phenomenon that increases tropical cyclone activity had come to an end after three nasty years. Conditions, they said, were trending toward an El Niño, a phase marked by warm waters in the eastern Pacific that can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA's hurricane outlook became reality last week when forecasters with its Climate Prediction Center predicted a "near normal” 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30. That prediction, however, comes with a caveat. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea could nullify that forecast, creating just the right conditions for an active storm season, according to a top University of Miami atmospheric scientist. "If this were another La Niña year, we would expect a much bigger hurricane forecast season because conditions would be primed in the Atlantic for an enhanced year,” said Ben Kirtman, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the William R. Middelthon III Endowed Chair in Earth Sciences. "El Niño could keep us closer to near normal.