Warming climate likely to dramatically increase Yellowstone fires by mid-century

Climate is changing fire patterns in the west in a way that could markedly change the face of Yellowstone National Park , according to new research. A study published online the week of July 25 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that climate change could increase the frequency of large fires in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem to a point that sparks dramatic shifts in the forest vegetation, from conifer-dominated mature forests to younger stands and more open vegetation. "Large, severe fires are normal for this ecosystem. It has burned this way about every few hundred years for thousands of years," explains study author Monica Turner , the Eugene P. Odum Professor of Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a landscape ecologist who has worked in the Greater Yellowstone area for more than 20 years. "But if the current relationship between climate and large fires holds true, a warming climate will drive more frequent large fires in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in the future." Wildfires in this ecosystem are climate-driven and are primed by hotter, drier conditions, such as those predicted by numerous global climate models. Already fire ecologists have noticed increased fire frequency in the west, associated with temperature increases of less than two degrees Fahrenheit and early spring snowmelt in the mountains. For the new study, the researchers analyzed large wildfires (greater than 500 acres) and climate data in the northern Rocky Mountains from 1972 to 1999, then used these observed relationships with global climate models to project how expected climate change will impact fires during the 21st century.